The Consistent Climate Scenarios Project
The Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (QCCCE) is undertaking a project which aims to provide climate change projections data for 2030 and 2050 in ‘ready-to-use’ formats suitable for input to biophysical models such as GRASP and APSIM.
The Consistent Climate Scenarios Project is funded by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) until June 2012, through DAFF’s Australia’s Farming Future – Climate Change Research Program.
Once the project is completed, projections data developed as part of this project will be made available for download on SILO.
Information about the project is also available in this fact sheet (PDF, 600K, last updated 03:57PM, 13 July 2011)*.
Why is the project needed?
Currently, researchers studying climate change impacts on primary industries do not have access to climate change projections in a format suitable for biophysical modelling. This project will provide researchers with ‘ready-to-use’ projections data for climate change impacts and adaptation studies.
By developing projections data in a consistent manner across Australia and making these data readily accessible to researchers, the Consistent Climate Scenarios Project will make it easier for researchers to undertake climate change adaptation studies and to compare results.
What will the project produce?
The project will produce Australia-wide projections data for 2030 and 2050 as daily time-series in a format suitable for most biophysical models.
Biophysical models typically require daily climate input data for individual locations or regions. This project will provide daily projections of rainfall, evaporation, minimum and maximum temperature, solar radiation and vapour pressure deficit for individual locations. Projections data will also be developed on a 0.05 degree (approximately 5 kilometre) grid across Australia. Users will be able to download these data, in model-ready formats, for individual locations or regions.
The projections data will be based on 19 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report global climate models deemed to be most reliable for the Australian region (Suppiah et al. 2007 (PDF)*; Smith and Chiew, 2009 (PDF)*).
For each global climate model, projection data options will include a range of emissions scenarios and climate sensitivities.
The development of the projections data will be incremental. Initially historical climate data in SILO will be scaled based on climate projections for 2030 and 2050 derived from CSIRO's OzClim. A more sophisticated approach is also being implemented based on recommendations from the project’s Expert Review Panel. A User Guide is being developed to assist data users.
Who will have access to the data?
The projections data will initially be made available to DAFF Climate Change Research Program projects. This will provide an opportunity for modellers to test and evaluate the data prior to the data being released on SILO in mid 2012.
Consistent Climate Scenarios project flowchart
* Requires Adobe Reader
Last updated 28 September 2011