Seasonal climate outlook

The Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence (the Centre) produces a monthly climate statement which interprets seasonal climate outlook information for Queensland. The monthly climate statement is based on the Centre’s own information and also draws on information from national and international climate agencies.

The Centre’s assessment of rainfall probabilities is based on the current state of the ocean and atmosphere and its similarity with previous years.  In particular the Centre monitors the current and projected state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) referring to information such as sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly maps and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Based on this information, the Centre uses two systems to calculate rainfall probabilities for Queensland:

• The Centre’s SOI-Phase system produces seasonal rainfall probabilities based on ‘phases’ of the Southern Oscillation Index.
• The Centre’s experimental SPOTA-1 (Seasonal Pacific Ocean Temperature Analysis - version 1) monitors Pacific Ocean SSTs from March to October each year to provide long-lead ‘outlooks’ for Queensland summer (November to March) rainfall.

Outlooks based on both the SOI-Phase system and SPOTA-1 are freely available, although a password is required to access the experimental SPOTA-1 information (email rouseabout@climatechange.qld.gov.au).

Last updated 21 October 2011

Seasonal climate outlook

• QCCCE monthly climate statement
• Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
• Rainfall probabilities based on 'phases' of the SOI
• Commentary on rainfall probabilities based on 'phases' of the SOI
• Sea surface temperature anomaly map
• Rainfall probabilities based on Seasonal Pacific Ocean Temperature Analysis-1 (SPOTA-1)
• Interpreting rainfall probabilities