The report provides a three-month seasonal outlook for the selected Lot on Plan. The outlook is for the three-month period commencing the month the report is requested and is relevant to the immediate district surrounding the selected Lot on Plan. The outlook is based on ‘Phases’ of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (Stone, et al. 1996).
Two outlooks are provided in the report:
The rainfall outlook is based on historical rainfall at the selected location. Probabilities are given for ‘dry’, ‘near-average’ and ‘wet’ rainfall over the three-month outlook period. The pasture growth outlook is calculated using the GRASP model taking into account the current soil status and climate outlook. Probabilities are given for ‘low’, ‘near-average’ and ‘high’ pasture growth over the three-month outlook period.
The rainfall and pasture growth outlook report includes:
Report sample is available online here .
For a selected Lot on Plan or adjoining Lots on Plan in Queensland, for a three-month outlook period, this report provides:
A rainfall outlook based on 99 years of historical rainfall at the selected location. Probabilities are given for ‘dry’, ‘near-average’, and ‘wet’ conditions.
A pasture growth outlook based on pasture growth modelling incorporating historical rainfall and climate data from the selected location. The pasture modelling also takes into account current conditions (e.g. soil water status). Probabilities are given for ‘low’, ‘near-average’ and ‘high’ pasture growth.
The Rainfall and Pasture Growth Outlook report shows, for the selected Lot on Plan, the probabilities for rainfall and modelled pasture growth for the coming three-month period.
Probabilities shown in the pie diagrams are not drawn from the entire historical record but rather a smaller selection of years known as ‘analogue’ years. These years are ‘analogous’ (i.e. similar) to the current year in terms of the behaviour (average value and rate of change) of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over the previous two months (Stone et al. 1996).
The analogue years on which the rainfall and pasture growth outlooks are based are listed in the report under the heading ‘How to interpret the outlook’.