Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2000 to February 2001

The bottom line

SOI message 14th November 2000

The average SOI over the previous 30 days remains ' strongly' positive at +11.6 (up to 15th November). The probabilities of receiving the long-term median rainfall, during the total November-January period, are now 60-70% in most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions are small areas along the east coast, parts of far north-west Qld and central-western Qld, far central-western Qld, and southern inland NSW where probabilities are 50-60%; and most of Victoria and Tasmania where probabilities are 40-60%.

The 30-50 day oscillation (40-day wave) is next expected to affect Queensland during the third week of November.

The full story

Review of Climate Forecasts and Information

As mentioned in previous releases, the dry conditions experienced over much of Qld (especially southern areas) have been due to the sub-tropical high-pressure ridge tracking further north than usual this year. This pattern would not normally be expected to persist beyond spring, suggesting some easing of the dry conditions is now probable.

Climate pattern and SOI 'phase'. The latest SOI 'phase' analysis suggests reasonably high probabilities (60-70%) of receiving the long-term median rainfall during the November-January period for most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions are small areas along the east coast, parts of far north-west Qld and central-western Qld, far central-western Qld, southern inland NSW where probabilities are 50-60%; most of Victoria and Tasmania where probabilities are 40-60%. Note that a 70% probability of receiving the long-term median for a location also means there is a 30% probability of not receiving the median for that location. These probability values are simply statements of fact referring to the history of rainfall events for particular locations over the past 100 years.

Sea-surface temperatures. Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are mostly close to 'average' at present, but there are large areas of warm anomalies west of the International Dateline (including Gulf of Carpentaria to Kimberley). However, temperatures of waters off the coasts of eastern Qld and northern NSW are around average.

Some general circulation models are suggesting the potential for warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the next 6-9 months. We will watch the situation closely to determine any potential for El Niño development, or otherwise, in 2001. Close monitoring of sea-surface temperature patterns over the next six months is suggested.

Pasture Growth forecasts. The probabilities of obtaining median pasture growth or better during the October to December period are 'above-average' over most of Qld. However notable exceptions are parts of the south-east of the State where the probabilities are only 10% to 30% due to poor soil moisture conditions.

30- to 50-Day Oscillation. The next passage of the 30- to 50-Day Oscillation over Qld is expected about the third week in November.

Last updated: 14 November 2000