Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2002

The bottom line

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 10th July is -5.7.

Based on the recent pattern of the SOI over May and June, there is only a 10-30% chance of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for July to September across most of Queensland. For the rest of eastern Australia the probability of receiving or getting above median rainfall for July to September also remains low.

The rainfall outlook for the rest of the year will depend on how the current SOI pattern develops. If the SOI remains negative, these low rainfall probabilities would be expected to continue.

The previous passage in mid-June of the 30-50day intra-seasonal oscillation (also known as the MJO) was evident with the rise of the 30day average of the SOI and some useful rainfall events especially across central Queensland at this time. The MJO is next expected to influence our weather in late July.

The timing of this phenomenon can alter. It is also worth remembering that it is an indicator as to the potential timing of rainfall events rather than an indicator as to rainfall amounts across southern and central Queensland. However given the overall dry conditions that have existed for most of the year across Queensland, many producers will be waiting to see if it induces some relief rainfall.

Last updated: 9 July 2002