Additional Resources
The Climate Change in Australia website from the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) provides additional information and tools to explore national climate projections, as well as impacts and adaptation. In the State of the Climate reports, CSIRO and BOM draw on the latest climate research, projections and historical measurements to describe year-to-year variability and longer-term changes in Australia’s climate.
The National Environment Science Program (NESP) Climate Systems Hub is a partnership of Australia’s leading climate change research and decision-making agencies. The Hub undertakes research and produces resources to advance the understanding of Australia’s changing climate.
Key team publications
The results of our climate modelling and analyses are published in peer-reviewed journals to ensure users can have confidence in the information provided. Some examples include:
Kim, S., Syktus, J., Thatcher, M., & Trancoso, R. (2026). Evaluation of High-Resolution CORDEX-CMIP6 Ocean Temperature Simulations for the Great Barrier Reef. JGR Atmospheres. 131. Available at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026JD046902?af=R
Ma, S., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Prein, A.F., & Dowdy, A. (2026). The contribution of atmospheric features to mean and extreme precipitation across Australia. Environmental Research; Communications. 8. Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ae92f0
Chapman, S., Allen, J., Syktus, J., Trancoso, R., & Eccles, R. (2026). Widespread increases in severe convective environments with climate change projected in Australia in dynamically downscaled CORDEX-CMIP6 models. Environmental Research: Climate. 5, 3. Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ae774a.
Toombs, N., Chapman, S., Ma, S., Trancoso, R., et al. (2026). Downscaled projections of bioclimatic indices for species distribution modelling in Australia—a case study for the greater glider. Environmental Research: Climate 5, 3. Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ae70a5
McGloin, R., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Eccles, R., Toombs, N., & Dowdy, A. (2026). Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia. NPJ Natural Hazards. 3, 28. Available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-026-00193-9
Zhang, H., Chapman, S., Trancoso, R., Eccles, R., Syktus, J., & Toombs, N. (2025). Projections of actual and potential evapotranspiration from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 climate simulations in Australia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 29. Available at https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/6863/2025/
Narsey, S, Grose, M., Delage, F., et al. (2025). Disentangling the uncertainties in regional projections for Australia. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 75, ES25015. Available at https://doi.org/10.1071/ES25015
Jiang, X, Howard, E., Su, C., et al. (2025). Towards benchmarking the dynamically downscaled CMIP6 CORDEX-Australasia ensemble over Australia. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 75, ES24050. Available at https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24050
Eccles, R., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Chapman, S., Toombs, N., Zhang, H., Ma, S., & McGloin, R. (2025). High-resolution downscaled CMIP6 drought projections for Australia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 29. Available at https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/4689/2025/
Ma, S., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Chapman, S., & Eccles, R. (2025). Evaluating ERA5 Downscaled Simulations Using CCAM: Large-Scale Circulation Processes and Teleconnections. JGR Atmospheres. 130. Available at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025JD043566
Eccles, R., Syktus, J., Trancoso, R., Chapman, S., Wasko, C., Evans, J. P., Thatcher, M., Virgilio, G., & Stassen, C. (2025). Substantial increases in future precipitation extremes – insights from a large ensemble of downscaled CMIP6 models. NPJ Natural Hazards. 2, 60. Available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-025-00107-1.
Chapman, S., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Eccles, R., & Toombs, N. (2025). Impacts on compound drought heatwave events in Australia per global warming level. Environmental Research Letters. 20, 054070. Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326.
Chapman, S., Syktus, J., Trancoso, R., Toombs, N., & Eccles, R. (2024). Projected Changes in Mean Climate and Extremes from Downscaled High-Resolution CMIP6 Simulations in Australia. Weather and Climate Extremes. 47, 100733. Available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100733.
Bulovic, N., McIntyre, N., Trancoso, R., Bolz, P., & Shaygun, M. (2024). Downscaled climate model erosivity projections and drivers of change across distinct climate regions. Catena, 244, 108250. Available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2024.108250.
Bulovic, N., McIntyre, N., & Trancoso, R. (2024). Climate change risks to mine closure. Journal of Cleaner Production. 465. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652624021450.
Zhang, H., Chapman, S., & Trancoso, R. (2024). Assessing the impact of bias correction approaches on climate extremes and the climate change signal. Meteorol. Appl. 31, e2204. Available at https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2204.
Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Allan, R.P., Croke, J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., & Chadwick, R. (2024). Significantly wetter or drier future conditions for one to two thirds of the world’s population. Nat. Commun. 15, 483. Available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44513-3.
Chapman, S., Syktus, J., Trancoso, R., Thatcher, M., Toombs, N., Wong, K.K., & Takbash, A (2023). Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6-CCAM Models Over Australia. Earth's Future 11, e2023EF003548. Available at https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003548.
Eccles, R., Zhang, H., Hamilton, D., Trancoso, R, Toombs, N, & Syktus, J.(2023). Impacts of climate change on nutrient and sediment loads from a subtropical catchment. Journal of Environmental Management, 345. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479723015268.
Xu, Z., Varghese, B.M, Trancoso, R., Wilson, L.F., & Cheng, J. (2023). Mortality associated with heatwave severity in the three largest Australian cities. Epidemiology, 34, 1. Available at https://journals.lww.com/epidem/fulltext/2023/01000/mortality_associated_with_heatwave_severity_in_the.22.
Grose, M., Narsey, S., Trancoso, R., Mackallah, C., Delage, F., Dowdy, A., Di Virgilio, G., Watterson, I., Dobrohotoff, P., Rashid, H.A., Rauniyar, S., Henley, B., Thatcher, M., Syktus, J., Abramowitz, G., Evans, J.P., Su, C.H., & Takbash, A. (2023). A CMIP6-based multi-model downscaling ensemble to underpin climate change services in Australia. Clim. Serv. 30, 100368. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000298.
Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Salazar, A., Thatcher, M. J., Toombs, N., Wong, K. K. H., Meijaard, E., Sheil, D., & McAlpine, C. A. (2022). Converting tropical forests to agriculture increases fire risk by fourfold. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 104019. Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac8f5c/meta.
Eccles, R., Zhang, H., Hamilton, D., Trancoso, R., & Syktus, J. (2021). Impacts of climate change on streamflow and floodplain inundation in a coastal subtropical catchment. Adv. Water Resour. 147, 103825. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0309170820306941.
Trancoso, R., Syktus, J., Toombs, N., Ahrens, D., Wong, K., & Dalla Pozza, R. (2020): Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future. Sci. Total Environ. 140521. Avalable at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140521.
The Conversation Articles
Our new high-resolution climate models are a breakthrough in understanding Australia’s future.
