News and Updates

The Queensland Government has downscaled a selection of global CMIP6 models to a resolution of 10km using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM). This downscaled 10 km data is now available on NCI (National Computational Infrastructure) in gridded netCDF format for a select number of variables.

The dataset includes an ensemble of 15 downscaled models over the Australasian region (Figure 1) for 15 daily and monthly variables. Precipitation is also available at hourly intervals.

The Queensland Government has recently updated the Queensland Future Climate website. This includes updating the website's high-resolution climate projections tools and information products with dynamically-downscaled projections from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) represent a new generation of GCMs and are highlighted in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) from the IPCC. CMIP6 introduced Shared Socioeconomic Pathway’s (SSPs) (SSPs) as an updated way to describe future emissions pathways. The previous generation, CMIP5, described these trajectories using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In comparison to CMIP5, CMIP6 includes more models based on the latest understanding of ocean and atmospheric processes (such as improved descriptions of cloud processes and biogeochemical cycles). CMIP6 models also feature a wider range of climate sensitivities (the average change in global mean temperature in response to a change in climate forcing).

CMIP6 GCMs typically use a grid cell size of 100-200km. In order to better represent regional climate, the Queensland Government used dynamical downscaling to produce high resolution projections with a 10km resolution over Australia, making the projections more appropriate for regional scale assessments of climate risk and climate change impacts.

Our updated Queensland Future Climate resources take advantage of the latest climate science, presenting dynamically downscaled data and information based on CMIP6 models and using SSPs.

New features on the Queensland Future Climate Dashboard and Regional Explorer include:

1. Summarised future climate information derived using an ensemble of 15 dynamically-downscaled CMIP6 regional climate models (compared to an 11-model ensemble for the CMIP5 version);
2. The ability to select from 3 SSP emission scenarios representing low, moderate and high greenhouse gas futures (compared to 2 RCP scenarios for the CMIP5 version);
3. A new regional map layer for National Resource Management regions and the inclusion of a ‘Locations’ option (including over 200-point locations featuring cities, towns and areas of interest);
4. An option to select both Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based drought and wetness indices;
5. The inclusion of FAO Reference Evapotranspiration as a variable under the Mean Climate theme;
6. The inclusion of a switch to alternate between the CMIP6 and CMIP5 versions of the Dashboard and Regional Explorer;
7. The inclusion of a humid heatwaves climate theme (instead of the dry heatwaves presented in CMIP5 products).

Additional new features on the Queensland Future Climate website include:

1. An expanded User Guide and an updated and expanded set of Factsheets to assist users on how to use the various features available on the Queensland Future Climate website and provide context about other useful climate information and data sources;
2. An updated set of regional climate change impact summaries that provide snapshots of projected climate change and potential impacts across Queensland’s regional planning areas and the Torres Strait region.

The Queensland Government has downscaled a selection of global CMIP6 models using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM) as part of our contribution to CORDEX-CMIP6 Australasia.

This new dataset is the highest resolution, and largest ensemble of CMIP6 climate projections for the Australian continent. The dataset includes an ensemble of 15 regional climate models, across three emissions scenarios; the low emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, the “middle of the road” SSP2-4.5 scenario, and the high emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario. This dataset has already been evaluated over Australia (Earth’s Future), and found to represent Australia’s climate well, particularly for extremes, along the coasts, and in topographically complex areas. This dataset should be of great value to those looking to understand the impacts of climate change, particularly extremes, in the region.

Model outputs for the 20 km CORDEX Australasia domain are now available as gridded datasets (netCDF) via the National Computational Infrastructure. We expect to update the Queensland Future Climate Dashboard, and other resources with the CMIP6 projections in the second half of this year.

These high-resolution, downscaled climate projections will be important to understand regional and local impacts from climate change, and vital for adaptation and policy formulation.

High-resolution climate models are needed for producing climate change projections for assessing regional and local climate change impacts and for adaptation and policy formulation.

The Queensland Government study, recently published in Earth’s Future, outlines how a selection of global climate models (GCMs) from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were dynamically downscaled to a 10 km resolution over Australia using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric model (CCAM). Three emissions scenarios were used: SSP126, consistent with 1.5 – 2°C of global warming, the SSP245 “middle of the road” projection, and the high emission scenario SSP370. By downscaling this range of scenarios, stakeholders can use these projections to evaluate risks from climate change.

The high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 GCM simulations were evaluated by comparing them to observational data from the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset and to their host global model across several regions within Australia. The high-resolution simulations improved over their host models in areas of complex topography and along the highly populated coastlines. Large improvements were also found for extremes, particularly the number of dry days, extreme minimum temperatures, and extreme precipitation. The high-resolution projections show improvement compared to global climate models consistently across spatial scales and regions, being particularly high (150%) in the densely populated South-East Queensland region. This new 10 km dataset is the highest resolution, and largest ensemble of CMIP6 climate projections for the Australian continent, and should be of great value to those looking to understand the impacts of climate change, particularly extremes, in the region.

The Queensland Government has recently updated their Queensland Future Climate website with several new features, including:

1. an updated Queensland Future Climate Dashboard with a new ‘Fire Weather Indices’ tab;
2. a new Regional Explorer page with regional table summaries and timeseries tabs;
3. a new landing page;
4. the inclusion of a User Guide and Factsheets to assist users on how to use the various features available on the Queensland Future Climate website and provide context about other useful climate information and data sources.

Australian landscapes are fire prone and were severely damaged by bushfires in the recent past. Understanding how these conditions are projected to change in future is essential to build preparedness. The new ‘Fire Weather Indices’ tab on the Queensland Future Climate Dashboard quantifies fire weather hazard using the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) as the underlying metric, which is computed using rainfall, wind speed, temperature and humidity. The future impacts on FFDI are presented across severity categories (ranging from low to severe) for four 20-year time slices (centred on 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090) and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Input variable data for the FFDI calculation was sourced from eleven downscaled global climate models (GCMs) from phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For more information on the downscaling procedure please see the Understanding the data page.

The effects of climate change will vary in both space and time across Queensland’s regions, and understanding this variation is important for assessing climate impacts and informing adaptation decisions. The new Regional Explorer provides a quick and easy way to access summary information based on climate projections at a regional level. The Regional Explorer utilises the same climate simulations as presented on the Queensland Future Climate Dashboard but makes it easier to view all climate variables for a defined region. This may be very useful in early explorations of potential climate hazards for a defined area. The Regional Explorer presents information from regional scale climate simulations based on the eleven downscaled GCMs for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and for seven climate themes and five region types. Data can be viewed as a Summary Table, where the table is populated with the mean change values for the ensemble of models (as compared to the 1986-2005 baseline), with the mean change values presented for a range of climate metrics related to the selected climate theme. The data can also be viewed as a Timeseries, where timeseries charts provide customised visualisations of modelled variable anomalies for the 1981-2099 period.

The Climate Projections and Services Team recently welcomed Rohan Eccles, Ryan McGloin and Shaoxiu Ma to their team of climate experts, substantially enhancing the team’s capability. Rohan has a background in hydrology and the impacts of climate change, Shaoxiu’s expertise spans climate modelling and the impact of climate change on agricultural systems and Ryan is an expert in micrometeorology and atmospheric sciences. The team also welcomed back Principal Climate Scientist, Sarah Chapman from maternity leave.

The team recently updated their Queensland Future Climate website to include several new features, such as:

1. an updated Queensland Future Climate Dashboard with a new ‘Fire Weather Indices’ tab;
2. a new Regional Explorer page with regional table summaries and timeseries tabs;
3. a new landing page and
4. the inclusion of a User Guide and Factsheets to assist users in navigating the Queensland Future Climate website.

The team has also downscaled the latest global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) as part of the projections for CMIP6-CORDEX Australasia. These high-resolution climate simulations will foster the understanding of regional and local climate change impacts and inform adaptation and policy formulation country-wide.

Model outputs at the 20 km CORDEX Australasia domain will be available through NCI and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) portal. The 10 km resolution projections for Queensland will be made available for viewing via the Queensland Future Climate Dashboard, with a planned release for mid-2024.

In addition to providing high-resolution climate projections, the Climate Projections and Services Team are also offering a new Climate Science Knowledge Brokering service to help you understand the latest climate science and navigate the available climate resources.

This service is delivered through a partnership with the National Environmental Science Program's (NESP) Climate Systems Hub. The Hub provides half of the funding to support this service until mid-2024.

This partnership has delivered the first-ever national climate science knowledge brokering team, coordinated by the Hub, with knowledge brokers operating across states and territories. These knowledge brokers act as interpreters between climate scientists and decision-makers, building partnerships to ensure research is co-designed and co-produced with the people that need it to inform their decisions.

The Queensland Climate Science Knowledge Broker is Dave Putland from the Climate Projections and Services team in the Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation. Dave is available to provide information sessions and demonstrations of climate science resources that can help you select and interpret climate information for climate risk assessments, policy development, and adaptation decisions. Over time, this work aims to improve the design of climate science products based on user needs and expectations, with plans to include more specialized training for applying data in climate risk assessments.

For more details or to arrange an information session with your organization or team, please contact Dave at david.putland@des.qld.gov.au .