Pasture Growth Alert Report (prototype)

What is a Pasture Growth Alert report?


The Pasture Growth Alert (PGA) report provides an assessment of reduced pasture growth and pasture resilience risk for a property [lot(s)/plan]. The PGA report can be used to assist in stock and property management decisions to increase property resilience to drought and help to identify pasture recovery opportunities by assessing the property’s:

  • last 12 months pasture growth
  • pasture growth forecast for the next 6 months
  • the monthly total cover percentile

What is included in the report?


The Pasture Growth Alert report includes:

  • background information for current and historical property context
  • a pasture growth and resilience indicator showing the risk level of reduced pasture growth and pasture resilience for the next 6 months
  • a summary of factors contributing to the risk level of reduced pasture growth and pasture resilience
  • modelled pasture growth graphs for last 12 months and next 6 months
  • monthly percentile cover map showing how the property compares with the historical cover record for the same month
  • 12-month regional rainfall and modelled pasture growth percentile maps (i.e. relative to history) to provide spatial context of the property to the local and surrounding shires
  • suggested management considerations to support each different level of risk

Report sample and guides


Pasture Growth Alert report sample (PDF, 693 KB).

2-page “quick guide” of the PGA report (PDF, 1.8 KB).

A more detailed description of the PGA report is available in the FORAGE User Guide (PDF, 5.1 MB).

 

Common questions about the Pasture Growth Alert report


The PGA report provides an assessment of reduced pasture growth and pasture resilience risk for a property. The PGA report can be used to assist in stock and property management decisions to increase property resilience to drought and help to identify pasture recovery opportunities.

The PGA shows the level of risk for the selected land holding, which is estimated by using:

  • the property rainfall and modelled pasture growth for the last 12 months
  • the property rainfall and modelled pasture growth forecast for the next 6 months
  • the forecast of ENSO probability for the next three months
  • the most recent monthly ground cover for the property compared with the historical record

There are suggested management considerations for each different level of risk. These consideration options are guides only and more detailed advice may be required to achieve best management practice.

Pasture growth forecasts are produced using the GRASP pasture growth model in combination with rainfall outlooks and current pasture conditions with regard to soil moisture, nutrients and ground cover.

The rainfall outlooks are developed from the ENSO forecasts provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, New York (IRI; Barnston, et al. 2004).

A ‘percentile’ dataset (i.e. divided into one hundred sections, then ranked lowest to highest) for comparing historical records can be also represented as ‘terciles’ (i.e. divided into 3 sections).

The 33rd - 66th percentile is the middle ‘tercile’, which for this report is related as the ‘long term average’, that the property pasture growth or ground cover is being compared to.

The PGA report can be used to assist you in your stock and property management decisions to increase enterprise resilience and avoid impact of drought by assessing the:

  • last 12 months pasture growth
  • pasture growth outlook for next 6 months (including month to date growth)
  • the current monthly total ground cover relative to history

There are suggested management considerations to support each different level of risk. These considerations options are guides only and more detailed advice may be required to achieve best management practice.

Last updated: 27 May 2019