High Resolution Projections Data

High-resolution climate change projections for Queensland using dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global climate models forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), is available for download in gridded format with spatial resolution of 10 km at Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN).

The future climate projections in high temporal resolution (e.g., daily scale) was aggregated into annual time-series (termed "seas_avg") as well as sixteen 20-year time-slices with changes in relation to reference period 1886-2005 (as absolute change and percentage change, termed "abs-change" and "percent-change" respectively). The data are available for calendar seasons – i.e., summer (December, January and February), autumn (March, April and May), winter (June, July and August) and spring (September, October and November). In addition, we also provide aggregated information for wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) periods as well as at annual basis. Modelled climatologies for the reference period 1986-2005 are also available (termed "climatologies").

The eleven downscaled Global Climate Models with respective links for download are listed below:

CMIP5 model name: Model name: Institution name(s): Country of origin:
ACCESS1-0 Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, version 1.0 CSIRO & BoM Australia
ACCESS1-3 Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator, version 1.3 CSIRO & BoM Australia
CCSM4 Community Climate System Model NCAR USA
CNRM-CM5 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 CNRM & CERFACS France
CSIRO-Mk3.6 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3.6.0 CSIRO & Qld Govt Australia
GFDL-CM3 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 GFDL NOAA USA
GFDL-ESM2M Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Modular Ocean Model, version 4 component GFDL NOAA USA
HadGEM2 Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2 Met Office Hadley Centre UK
MIROC5 Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 AORI Japan Japan
MPI-ESM-LR Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution Max Planck Institute Germany
NorESM1-M Norwegian Earth System Model, version 1 (intermediate resolution) Norwegian Climate Centre Norway

 

We also provide multi model ensemble averages for the eleven models listed above. The model average is termed as EnsAvgQ .

A set of 25 climate variables is available at TERN as per description below.

Acronym

Long name

Units

d10

Change in 10m wind direction

deg

dew_ave

Average dew flux

W/m²

epan_ave

Average potential "pan" evaporation

W/m²

evap

Average evaporation

mm

fbeam_ave

Fraction of direct radiation

none

qgscrn

Screen mixing ratio

kg/kg

rhscrn

Screen relative humidity

%

rnc

Convective precipitation

mm/day

rnd

Precipitation

mm/day

rnd03

3hr precipitation

mm

rnd06

6hr precipitation

mm

rnd09

9hr precipitation

mm

rnd12

12hr precipitation

mm

rnd15

15hr precipitation

mm

rnd18

18hr precipitation

mm

rnd21

21hr precipitation

mm

rnd24

24hr precipitation

mm

sfcwindmax

Maximum 10m wind speed

m/s

sgdn_ave

Solar downwelling at ground

W/m²

sunhours

Sunshine hours

hrs

tmaxscr

Maximum screen temperature

K

tminscr

Minimum screen temperature

K

tscr_ave

Average screen temperature

K

tsu_ave

Average surface temperature

K

u10

10m wind speed

m/s

 

After selecting a model and a variable, users can download annual time-series ("seas_avg"), climatologies for reference period 1986-2005 ("climatologies"), and absolute ("abs_change") and percentage ("percent-change") changes in relation to reference period 1986-2016 for a range of time-slices. The time-slices represent 20-year averages as follow:

  • 2005-2024 (centred in 2015)
  • 2010-2029 (centred in 2020)
  • 2015-2034 (centred in 2025)
  • 2020-2039 (centred in 2030)
  • 2025-2044 (centred in 2035)
  • 2030-2049 (centred in 2040)
  • 2035-2054 (centred in 2045)
  • 2040-2059 (centred in 2050)
  • 2045-2064 (centred in 2055)
  • 2050-2069 (centred in 2060)
  • 2055-2074 (centred in 2065)
  • 2060-2079 (centred in 2070)
  • 2065-2084 (centred in 2075)
  • 2070-2089 (centred in 2080)
  • 2075-2094 (centred in 2085)
  • 2080-2099 (centred in 2090)
Last updated: 5 November 2018