Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for February to May 2000
The bottom line
SOI message 8th February 2000
The average SOI over the last 30 days was +6.6 . Based on the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the total February to April period are little different from the 'normal' for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia, and 60-70% in many coastal districts of Queensland and New South Wales
The full story
Based on the latest values and trends of the SOI, the probabilities of receiving above-median rainfall over the total February-April period are little different from the 'normal' for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia. Exceptions are most coastal districts of Queensland, western Cape York Peninsula, parts of far central-western Qld and the southern Maranoa, much of coastal NSW, south-western corner of NSW and far eastern Tasmania where probabilities are 60-70%.
The persistent 'cool' sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, combined with 'warm' SST anomalies around Western Australia, suggest a continuing 'weak' La Nina pattern.
Forecasts from experimental general circulation models are currently providing mixed signals regarding changes in the La Nina pattern by mid-year. Two models (including the most highly regarded one) are forecasting the development of an El Nino pattern, two are predicting continuation of the La Nina while the others are indicating neutral conditions. However, sub-surface sea temperatures to the east of Australia are now significantly warmer than normal, in classic 'pre-El Nino' mode. In addition, the sub-tropical ridge is again expected to be further north than normal to reduce winter rainfall from the Goondiwindi district through to the Central Highlands. As these indicators provide some cause for concern, regular monitoring of them and the SOI over the next few months is recommended.
Combining the rainfall outlook with current soil water and pasture condition, the probabilities of above-median pasture growth during the total January-March period are 60-100% in most districts of Qld.
The next passage of the 30- to 50-Day Oscillation is expected about the end of February.
The average SOI over the last 30 days was +6.6 . Based on the SOI, the probabilities of exceeding median rainfall during the total February to April period are little different from the 'normal' for this time of year in most of the eastern States of Australia, and 60-70% in many coastal districts of Queensland and New South Wales
More detailed information for your location can be obtained from the Australian Rainman software package. Also a lot of additional information is available on our FarmFax system, our Internet World Wide Web service called 'The Long Paddock', and on BoM's Fax and internet information services.
