Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for December 2001 to March 2002

The bottom line

Dated: 19th December 2001

SOI Falls In Value Again

There has been an "interesting" drop in the 30day average value of the SOI from +10 on the 25th November to -2.4 as of the 19th December. This drop in value continues the roller coaster ride the SOI has been on for most of 2001.

If this fall in value of the SOI continues through to the end of the month, there will be a reduction in rainfall probabilities for the January to March period across south east Queensland including the Darling Downs and southern coastal regions. However for the rest of the state, especially western Queensland, rainfall probabilities for the same period would rise.

In the mean time for the current December to February outlook, a mixed pattern in terms of rainfall probabilities currently exists across the Queensland. Regions of the state that have relatively low probabilities (20-40%) of exceeding median rainfall across the next 3 months include a strip running from Broadsound to Townsville shire, parts of the Dalrymple, Flinders and Richmond shires and a large part of north Queensland running from Mareeba to Bourke shires.

A few areas of higher rainfall probabilities exist. These are predominantly in the south west of Queensland where the probability of getting above median rainfall is between 50 to 80%. For most of the rest of Queensland there is currently no strong signal either way as to the next 3 months being excessively wet or dry.

This section will be next updated on the 24th December.