Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2002

The bottom line

SOI pattern continues to give mixed outlook. (Dated 30/01/02)

The 30day average of the SOI has risen since the end of December and as of the 30th January is +2.6.

The recent pattern of the SOI indicates the probability of above median rainfall for February to April will remain relatively positive (50-70%) for the strip running from Burke shire to Murweh shire for the time being.

However, despite the rise in SOI value over December to January, rainfall probabilities for February to April are relatively low (30-50%) for the far south west and most of the eastern half of the state. This area includes most of the north, central, south and south east of the state.

Our advice is to closely monitor information on SOI trends and sea surface temperature patterns over the next few months as some of the necessary pre-conditions required for the onset of an El Niño later this year are currently present. We will continue to provide updated information on the likelihood of this occurring over the next 6 months.