Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for March to June 2002

The bottom line

(Dated 27/03/02)

Based on the pattern of the SOI, the probability of median rainfall for March to May remains low across much of southern and south eastern Queensland.

For the region bordered by Miriam Vale, Taroom, Jondaryan and Boonah there is only a 30-40% chance of getting the long term March to May median rainfall. For the rest of southern and south eastern Queensland, relatively low rainfall probabilities of only 40-50% exist.

However probabilities across the northern half of the state have lifted and are between 50-80% depending on location.

The 30day average of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped from+7.1 at the start of the month and as of the 27/03/02 is -6.3.

As many of the patterns associated with a developing El Niño event continue to intensify we will closely monitor the situation and provide updated information regularly. A new outlook for the period April/June taking into account the fall in value of the SOI will be issued next week.