Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for April to July 2002

The bottom line

Based on the recent pattern of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over February/March, the probability of receiving median rainfall for April to June continues to remain low for much of Queensland.

Currently there is only a 20-50% probability of receiving median rainfall for April to June for most of the south, south-east, west, central and north of the state.

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 10th April is -8.3.

Information sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology estimate the chance of an El Niño this year has risen to about 60-40 (more than double the normal risk). Recent changes in both surface and sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean support the view of a potential El Nino pattern developing later this year.

We will closely monitor the situation and provide updated information regularly.