Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2002

The bottom line

Relief rain welcome but has had limited impact. (Dated 17 June)

The 30day average of the SOI has continued it's recent rise and as of the 17th June was -4.5.

It is essential to highlight that despite the recent rise in SOI value, the key point remains the continuation of low rainfall probabilities that have existed across most of Qld for the year to date.

Currently there is only a 20-50% chance of getting the median June to August rainfall for most of the south, west and far north coastal regions of the state. Across parts of central and north Queensland the probabilities vary between 30-70% depending on location.

While the recent patchy rainfall events have delivered benefits to those lucky enough to receive them, further rain will be needed to provide any real change in the overall current dry seasonal conditions. It is also worth remembering that most locations throughout the state are still well down on their normal year to date rainfall totals.