Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2002

The bottom line

30Day average of SOI falls. (Dated 26/06/02)

The 30day average of the SOI has fallen over the last week and as of the 26th June was -7.6.

If the SOI stays deeply negative through to the end of the month, quite low rainfall probability values (5-40% chance of getting median rainfall) will extend throughout most of eastern Australia for July to September.

The rainfall outlook for the rest of the year will depend on how the current SOI pattern develops. If the SOI remains consistently negative, these low rainfall probabilities will intensify and extend across most of Australia.