Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2002 to February 2003
The bottom line
SOI in "Consistently Negative" Phase (Dated 04/11/02)
The key point of the current outlook is the continuing low rainfall probabilities that have existed across Queensland for the last 6-9 months
Based on the recent pattern of the SOI, the probability of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for November to January remains low (10-40%) across most of Queensland. However probabilities are marginally higher (40-60%) for parts of the Darling Downs and west of the state (eg 44% chance of getting above the long term November to January median rainfall of 183mm at Talwood) indicating the potential for some relief rainfall.
Despite the fact that the probability of getting median rainfall remains low for many areas, it does not mean Queensland will miss out on all rain altogether. There will be some relief rain over summer, even though that rainfall will probably not exceed the long term average.
The monthly value of the SOI for September was -7.3 and for October was -7.6. Based on these monthly values the SOI remains in a "Consistently Negative" phase. The 30day average of the SOI has risen since the start of the month and as of the 4/11 is -4.5. A daily updated recorded message of the SOI is available on (07) 46881439.
For more specific rainfall data for your location refer to Australian Rainman or contact me through the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. More information is also available on the DPI climate page www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate
The full story
SOI Remains Negative (Dated 04/11/02)
The key point of the current outlook is the continuing low rainfall probabilities that have existed across Queensland for the last 6-9 months
Based on the recent pattern of the SOI, the probability of receiving or getting above the long term median rainfall for November to January remains low (10-40%) across most of Queensland.
However probabilities are marginally higher (40-60%) for parts of the Darling Downs and west of the state (eg 44% chance of getting above the long term November to January median rainfall of 183mm at Talwood) indicating the potential for some relief rainfall.
When dealing with probabilities it is important to consider the additional information provided. For example, based on the recent pattern of the SOI there is a 15% chance of getting above the long term November to January median rainfall of 373mm at Gympie. Therefore there is an 85% chance of not getting the long term November to January median rainfall.
Another way of looking at this is that in 1 to 2 years out of 10 with the current SOI pattern, Gympie has received its long term median November to January rainfall. Therefore in around 8 to 9 years out of 10 with the current SOI pattern, below median rainfall has been recorded at Gympie for November to January.
Despite the fact that the probability of getting median rainfall remains low for many areas, it does not mean Queensland will miss out on all rain altogether. There will be some relief rain over summer, even though that rainfall will probably not exceed the long term average.
The monthly value of the SOI for September was -7.3 and for October was -7.6. Based on these monthly values the SOI remains in a "Consistently Negative" phase. The 30day average of the SOI has risen since the start of the month and as of the 4/11 is -4.5. A daily updated recorded message of the SOI is available on (07) 46881439.
Other years that have had a "Consistently Negative" SOI phase in September/October include 1900, 1901, 1902, 1911, 1913, 1914, 1923, 1932, 1939, 1940, 1946, 1951, 1965, 1969, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1993, 1994 and 1997.
What were rainfall patterns and farming conditions like for November to January in your area for those years? The Long Paddock internet site has maps showing the rainfall patterns across Australia for those years.
As many producers and industry groups are interested in how climate forecasts can be used in management decisions I suggest reading the interesting case studies developed by the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (CVAP). The case studies can be found at the web site www.cvap.gov.au/mastersoftheclimate/ and highlight how these producers use climate information in their management decisions. I think these case studies are well worth reading.
Many producers have also found it helpful to do a cost benefit analysis of any decisions with a climate risk factor. For example, what will I gain if I get the desired outcome from this decision? What will I lose if I do not get the desired outcome from this decision? What other options (preferably nil or low cost) do I have?
An El Nino sea surface temperature pattern continues to persist in the Pacific Ocean. At present we do not expect a major break to this pattern before autumn 2003.
For more specific rainfall data for your location refer to Australian Rainman or contact me through the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. More information is also available on the DPI climate page www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate
