Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2002 to February 2003

The bottom line

No shift in rainfall probabilities (Dated 20/11/02)

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 20/11 is +2.6.

Despite the rise in the SOI the chance of above median November to January rainfall remains low at around 10-40% for most of the state. The SOI will have to remain in positive values through to the end of the month at least before there would be a shift in rainfall probabilities.

It's worth remembering that this does not mean Queensland will totally miss out on all rain this summer, as there is always the chance of some relief rainfall. However, currently there remains only a low chance of getting the well above average rainfall needed to break the ongoing drought.