Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2004

The bottom line

Recent Rain Welcome 14/01/04

Some good falls of rain have been recorded over the last 7-10days across much of Queensland. These falls have been welcome especially for those producers with summer crops suffering from recent hot conditions and graziers looking to get some good summer pasture growth. However the rain has been patchy and some areas (especially in the far south west) have missed out on the higher falls.

The big question remains as to whether there will be some follow up rain. The next best opportunity for some climate induced rainfall will be in early February when the MJO is next due. Research has shown that in summer the MJO can intensify the monsoon season as well as help trigger cyclones if there are any existing low-pressure systems in the Coral Sea.

In the mean time the highest rainfall probability values in Queensland still exist in the northern tropics and in central western areas. In these areas there is now a 60% to 70% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall. The lowest rainfall probabilities can be found in the far south west of the state where there is only a 20-40% chance of getting above median rain. For most of the rest of the state, forecast conditions remain mixed with a 50/50 chance of receiving above median rainfall for January to March.

Outside of Queensland, the highest rainfall probabilities (60-70% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall) can be found in the eastern half of the Northern Territory and South Australia and across most of Victoria and Tasmania.

The lowest rainfall probabilities (20-40% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall) outside of Queensland are currently found in the eastern half of Western Australia and across most of central NSW. For the rest of Australia, forecast conditions remain mixed with a 50/50 chance of receiving above median rainfall for January to March.

The latest rainfall probability maps can be found at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

The 30day average of the SOI has fallen since the start of the month and as of the 14th January is plus 1.2. It will be interesting to see if this fall continues through to the end of the month. If you like to follow the SOI, daily updates are also available on (07) 46881439. For more information or assistance with any climate related issue contact us through the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23.