Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2004

The bottom line

SOI Continues To Fall (21/01/04)

Following the sudden jump in the SOI over December to plus 9.0, the 30day average of the SOI has shown a remarkable fall to minus 7.3 as of the 21st January.

In the short term this will not create an immediate downturn in the seasonal outlook. However if a consistently negative SOI pattern is established by the end of autumn rainfall probabilities may then fall.

In the mean time there remains a 60% to 70% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall across the northern tropics and central west.

Lower rainfall probabilities can be found in the far south-west corner where there is a 20-40% chance of getting above median rain. Across the rest of Queensland the outlook is mixed with a 50/50 chance of receiving above median rainfall.