Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2004

The bottom line

SOI Continue To Fall 28th January 2004

The 30day average of the SOI has shown a remarkable fall to minus 14 as of the 28th January from a high of plus 9 at the end of December.

In the short term this will not create an immediate problem with the seasonal outlook. However, if a consistently negative SOI pattern becomes established (especially over autumn), rainfall probabilities will fall.

For January to March there remains a reasonable 60% to 70% chance of getting above the long term median rainfall across the northern tropics and central west.

For the far southwest corner of the state however, there is only a 20-40% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rain.

The February to April outlook will be released next week.