Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for March to June 2004

The bottom line

Based on the recent pattern of the SOI, the current seasonal outlook highlights a reasonable 60 to 80% chance for much of North Queensland getting at least its long-term median rainfall through to the end of May. However for South East Queensland there is a lower 30-40 per cent chance of getting at least the long-term median rainfall for the three months to the end of May. Across the rest of the state though, there is no strong signal towards either wetter or drier than normal conditions.

The 30day average of the SOI as of Wednesday 17th March is plus 4.0.

As we are entering the key time of the year (autumn) when climate conditions can change quickly, we recommend keeping an eye on the SOI phase and sea surface temperature (SST) trends over the next few months.

Cloud along the equator from west of India to the mid Pacific has made the MJO signal difficult to predict. However a large low off the south west coast of India could develop further as the MJO moves over it over the next couple of days. This should mean the MJO will go through our northern tropics around the end of this month or early next month.