Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2004

The bottom line

SOI remains in negative numbers (28/07/04)

Since mid-June, the SOI has remained in negative values and as of the 28th July, the 30day average is minus 7.0.

The chance of some rain during the remainder of winter is one of the few bright spots with the seasonal outlook over the next three months. Based on the recent pattern of the SOI it is more likely than not that spring and early summer will be drier than normal.

For August to October there is only a low (10-40%) chance of getting above the long-term median rainfall across most of Queensland.

It's also worth remembering that for northern Australia we are still in our "traditional dry season" of July, August and September. A full seasonal outlook for August to October will be issued next week.

Last updated: 27 July 2004