Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2005

The bottom line

Dry conditions affect wheat yield potential Dave McRae 07/06/05

In what wouldn't be a surprise, the below average rainfall recorded across Queenslands cropping belt this year has caused a significant drop in the potential wheat yield outlook.

Ongoing below average soil moisture and lack of planting rain has set the winter wheat season up to a poor start. As well the June to August seasonal outlook shows a low chance of getting above median rainfall exacerbating the problem.

Currently there is a below average chance of getting above median shire wheat yields this year across Queensland with south-east and central Queensland having a low 20 to 40% chance of getting above median shire wheat yields. For the Darling Downs and Western Downs there is only a 10 to 20% of getting above median shire wheat yields.

This trend extends across the eastern states. The main exception to this low yield potential is in Western Australia where there is an above average chance of getting above median shire wheat yields.

This wheat yield outlook is based on a shire scale. It does not take into account crop area planted and is purely a yield forecast. Nor does not take into account individual property circumstances or the effects and damage from poor crop nutrition, pests, diseases, frosts and distribution of planting rain within a shire.

For more information on the APSRU/DPI&F regional wheat crop outlook contact Andries Potgieter on (07) 46881417 or try www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate

As of the 7th June the 30 day average of the SOI has remained in negative numbers and is minus 15.5.

Based on the value of the SOI at the end of May there is less than a 30 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall for winter across the southern half of the state. Low rainfall probabilities also extend into parts of western Queensland, the Central Highlands, Burdekin and the lower half of the peninsular which also have less than a 30 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall for June to August.

For the rest of the state there is generally around a 40 to 50% chance of getting median rainfall for winter. It is worth noting that we have entered our normally drier time of year. The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

For more information call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.