Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2005

The bottom line

SOI rises in value (22nd June 05)

The 30-day average of the SOI has risen over the last few weeks to minus 0.9 as of Wednesday the 22nd June. It will be very interesting to see if this upward trend is maintained or if it is just a short-term fluctuation. As we have stated regularly, for there to be an overall widespread improvement in conditions across the state, it would help if the SOI went into positive values for a couple of months at least. The last time the SOI was in a "Consistently Positive" phase was for one month in March 2004 and before that was in early 2001.

There has been some very useful relief rain recorded across much of the southern and central Queensland. Despite this, there remains a 30 to 40% chance of getting median rainfall for June through to the end of August for southern Queensland and into parts of central western Queensland, the Central Highlands, Burdekin and lower half of the peninsular. For the rest of the state there is generally around a 50% chance of getting median rainfall for winter.

A consistently negative SOI phase at the end of May as was the case this year also increases the chance of a later than normal finish to the severe frost season in many areas.

Currently conditions in the Pacific indicate that the likelihood of a classic Pacific Ocean El Niño event developing this year has reduced. If this trend continues past the end of the month, the risk of an El Niño event developing this year will be substantially reduced.

The latest rainfall probability maps for Queensland, Australia and the world are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au For more specific information for your location refer to Rainman StreamFlow or call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.