Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2005

The bottom line

Climate Watch 12/07/05

Wheat Yield Outlook Improves

The latest wheat outlook has remarkably improved especially for NSW and Queensland. Most areas of southeast and central Queensland now have greater than a 70% chance of getting above median shire wheat yields.

This improvement was largely caused by above average rainfall during June improving soil moisture levels across most of the cropping region. As well rainfall probabilities for July to September have improved due to the rapidly rising SOI phase at the end of June. In some areas where it is getting too late for planting, fallowing for the rest of winter should provide good soil moisture levels for spring/summer cropping.

The APSRU/DPI&F wheat yield outlook is based on a shire scale. It does not take into account crop area planted and is purely a yield forecast. It does not take into account individual property circumstances or the effects and damage from poor crop nutrition, pests, diseases, frosts and distribution of planting rain within a shire. It should be noted that forecast quality of the crop outlook improves as the season progresses.

For more information on the regional wheat crop outlook contact Andries Potgieter on (07) 46881417 or try www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate where a full copy the wheat crop outlook can be found.

The monthly value of the SOI rose from minus 11.7 for May to plus 0.5 for June placing the SOI in a 'Rapidly Rising' phase. With the rise in value of the SOI most of the state has above a 60% chance of getting median rainfall for July through to the end of September. The exception is for inland far north Queensland where probabilities are lower.

As of Tuesday the 12th the 30-day average of the SOI was plus 2.5. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439.

As with any probability based forecast system it is important to consider the opposite aspect. For example, Nanango has a 75% chance of getting above 100 mm for July through to the end of September. This also means that there is a 25% chance of NOT getting 100 mm over July to September.

Another way of looking at this is that in around seven to eight years out of ten historically (or around three quarters) with the current SOI pattern, Nanango has received at least 100 mm over July to September. Therefore in two to three years out of ten historically (or around one quarter), Nanango has gotten less than 100 mm over July to September.

For more information refer to Rainman StreamFlow or call the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23 or (07) 3404 6999.