Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for September to December 2005

The bottom line

Climate Watch 15 September 2005

Based on a "Rapidly Falling" SOI phase at the end of August the chance of receiving well above average rainfall across most of Queensland for September to November is low with rainfall more likely to be average to below average. For example across most of the state there is less than a 50% chance of getting above median rainfall for September to November with some locations (such as in the southern and central coastal strip and into parts of the southern and central west) having a lower 20 to 40% chance of getting above median rainfall.

Low probabilities of above median rainfall for September to November are also found in central and coastal NSW, the northern half of South Australia, across much of Western Australia extending into the Northern Territory. For Victoria and Tasmania though there is a higher 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall for September to November.

The 30-day average of the SOI has continued to fluctuate and as of Wednesday 13th September was minus 0.1. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439. The latest rainfall probability maps are at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

When making business decisions with a climate risk factor a simple cost benefit analysis may prove useful. For example what will I gain if I get the desired outcome? What will I lose (eg sleep, money, family relationships etc) if I do not get the desired outcome and what other options (eg risk neutral) are there? A part of this process is to help managers to be careful not to change from normal risk management to high level risk taking based on a piece of information (such as a climate forecast).