Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2005 to February 2006

The bottom line

SOI continues to fluctuate 01/11/05

The monthly value of the SOI shifted from plus 3.3 for September to plus 11.5 for October placing the SOI in a "Rapidly Rising" phase. It will be interesting to see if the SOI remains in positive values or if the recent upward trend is just a short term fluctuation. Remaining in positive values through to the end of November would help 'improve' the seasonal outlook.

Based on this phase and historical rainfall records for November through to the end of January, rainfall is likely to be above median for the central west, below median to median for southern Queensland (especially the border regions) and near median for the rest of the state.

For more information contact the DPI&F Call Centre on 13 25 23.