Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for March to June 2006

The bottom line

SOI Rises 22nd March 06

As of the 22nd March the 30-day average of the SOI has risen to plus 9.9. Recent positive values of the SOI reflect development of an active monsoonal trough across northern Australia and the low pressure systems associated with cyclone activity.

Based the SOI phase at the end of February there is less than a 50% chance of getting above the long term March through to the end of May median rainfall across most of Queensland. There is a slightly higher 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall during March to May for the far western Darling Downs.