Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for June to September 2006

The bottom line

Climate Watch Dave McRae Qld DPI&F 13/06/06 Downward trend in wheat crop outlook As expected there has been a downward shift in likely yield for the winter wheat crop due to ongoing dry conditions and a lower chance of above median rainfall during June to August throughout the state's cropping regions. Based on the seasonal outlook and current soil water conditions at the end of May, the chance of getting above median shire wheat yields for 2006 is below average for most of Queensland. Some areas of central Queensland have a 30 to 50% chance of getting above the long-term median shire wheat yield. However for the rest of the state there is a low 10 to 30% chance of getting above the long-term median shire wheat yield. The regional wheat crop outlook is based on the assumption of cropping after a summer fallow and does not take into account effects of poor crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases or frosts. As it is early in the season the potential range of yield outcomes is still wide. This will narrow over the next few months as the outlook is updated. For more information contact Andries Potgieter on (07)46881417.