Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2006 to February 2007

The bottom line

Drought Information Sessions Available Dave McRae 14/11/06

DPI&F are running a number of short drought information sessions around the state before the end of the year. At most of these sessions there will representatives from industry groups and agencies including DPI&F and State Development as well as QRAA, Centrelink, Rural Financial Counsellors, Queensland Health, AgForce etc to answer questions and provide help with what drought and financial assistance is available for producers from both the state and federal governments.

To see if there is one in your area or if you want one in your area please contact the DPI&F on 132523. A full listing of planned sessions is also available at

At this stage I'll be at the drought information sessions at Chinchilla Cultural Centre on the 21st and Moonie Sports Club on the 22nd November which start at 10:30 am and finish with lunch at 1pm. I'll also be at the drought information sessions at Yaraka, Windorah and Jundah on the 5th, 6th and 7th December.

The 30day average of the SOI has remained in negative values and as of the 14th November is minus 8.1. Throughout southern Queensland the chance of getting median rainfall for November through to the end of January varies between 30 to 50%. While this is not high it is an improvement when compared to most of the last 9 to 12 months.

The chance of getting median rainfall throughout central and northern Queensland is generally lower and varies between 10 to 40%. The main exception is for the far north west of the state along the Northern Territory border where there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall for November to January.

It is worth noting that even for those areas with a low chance of getting median rainfall that as we are entering our spring/summer rainfall season there is a still a reasonable chance of getting some useful relief rain.

The last passage of the MJO occurred during early November (2nd to the 5th). Unfortunately the strength of the MJO did weaken somewhat due to it moving away from Australia towards the South China Sea. However the trough system the recently crossed Australia was strongly influenced by the MJO. Based on its current timing it would be next expected in very late November or early December.

The MJO is a band of low air pressure originating off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 60 days. Research has shown the MJO to be a useful indicator of the timing of potential rainfall events (but not amounts). For more information try

Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439. Current rainfall probability maps are at or For more information contact the DPI&F on 132523.

Last updated: 13 November 2006