Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for March to June 2007

The bottom line

30 Day Average of SOI Slowly Going Up Dave McRae 19/03/07

There is a 30 to 50% of getting median rainfall throughout the northern half of Queensland during March to May. For the southern half of the state the chance of getting median rainfall during March to May is slightly higher at 40 to 60% with a few locations up to 70%.

Low probabilities (20 to 40%) of getting median rainfall persist throughout the north east corner of New South Wales, western half of Tasmania, south west Western Australia and the northern half of the Northern Territory. Throughout the rest of Australia the chance of getting median rainfall during March to May has improved to 50 to 70%.

As the autumn approaches it will be interesting to see what direction SOI values take. In terms of a state wide improvement in seasonal conditions a year of consistently positive SOI values and a La Nina (and maybe a bit of luck) would help.

As of the 18th March the 30day average of the SOI was plus 1.4. It will be an early warning sign for a likely dry winter/spring if SOI falls back into consistently negative values during autumn. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439 or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au