Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for August to November 2007

The bottom line

SOI in 'Rapidly Falling' SOI Phase. 06/08/07

Based on the shift in monthly value of the SOI from June (plus 5.4) to July (minus 4.8), the chance of getting median rainfall during August to October is less than 40% for most of Queensland and drops to less than 20% for the central west.

However, it is worth noting that we are in our 'dry season' and that August and September have the lowest median monthly rainfall totals for most locations in Queensland. Therefore significant or 'drought breaking' rain is not usual during this period.

The 30day average of the SOI as of the 6th August is minus 4.0. While negative SOI values are not what we want, there should be little impact as long as the SOI trends upwards before the end of the winter. However rainfall probabilities for our important summer rainfall season will remain low if the SOI remains in negative values. Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439 or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or you can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service call (07) 46881459.