Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for August to November 2007

The bottom line

Warm Spring likely. Dave McRae 24th August 2007

The Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au has just released its temperature outlook for September to November. It indicates a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions over most of northern Australia.

Averaged over September to November, there is a 60 to 80% chance for above 'normal' maximum temperatures throughout the northern two-thirds of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Average minimum temperatures are also likely to be warmer than normal throughout northern Australia. There is a 60 and 75% chance for above average minimum temperatures throughout northern Australia with up to an 80% chance in the western regions of Northern Territory.

So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six to eight September to November periods out of every ten are expected to be warmer than average over Queensland and the Northern Territory with about two to four out of ten being cooler.

As of the 24th August there are 82 shires and 2 part shires drought declared under State processes. This is 62.2% of the land area of Queensland. There are also 17 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in a further 3 shires.

Drought declarations in Queensland are made following recommendations from the local drought committees to the minister. Individually Droughted Property status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. For a full list of drought declared shires and a seasonal conditions report go the Long Paddock internet site www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

Other information on the current drought situation and available financial assistance, drought planning advice, social, and community counselling services can be found at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought or through the DPI Call Centre on 132523.

In the mean time the 30day average of the SOI has managed to remain in positive values and as of the 27th August is plus 1.7. It would be helpful to our spring/summer outlook if the SOI developed into a consistently positive pattern (say above plus 5.0) and remained there.

Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439 or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or you can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service call (07) 46881459.

Climate staff will be part of the Queensland Government display at AgShow in Toowoomba this year so if you have any climate related questions call round and see us.