Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for September to December 2007

The bottom line

60% of state remains drought declared. Dave McRae, Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence, 24th September 2007

The 30day average of the SOI has managed to remain in positive values and as of the 24th September is plus 6.1. It would be helpful to our spring/summer outlook if the SOI developed into a consistently positive pattern (say above plus 7.0) and remained there for a number of months. Interestingly, sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coastline are starting to become warmer than normal. If this warming trend where also to continue (as well as warm off the north-west coast of Australia) it would increase the opportunity for summer rainfall.

Daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439 or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au or you can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service call (07) 46881459.

Over 60% of the state remains drought declared under state government processes. There are currently 82 shires and 2 part shires drought declared. There is also a further 17 Individually Droughted Properties (IDPs) in an another five shires. Drought declarations in Queensland are made following recommendations from the local drought committees to the minister. Individually Droughted Property status is granted when criteria related to rainfall, pasture and stock conditions are met. For a full list of drought declared shires and a seasonal conditions report go the Long Paddock internet site www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

Other information on the current drought situation and available financial assistance, drought planning advice, social, and community counselling services can be found at www.dpi.qld.gov.au/drought or through the DPI Call Centre on 132523.

The Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au indicate a moderate to strong shift in the odds towards warmer than normal conditions throughout most of northern Australia for Spring. There is a 60 to 80% chance of getting above 'normal' maximum temperatures during Spring throughout the northern two-thirds of Queensland and the Northern Territory. Average minimum temperatures are also likely to be warmer than normal throughout northern Australia. There is a 60 to 75% chance of getting above average minimum temperatures throughout north eastern Australia with up to an 80% chance in the western regions of Northern Territory.