Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for November 2007 to February 2008

The bottom line

The Bottom Line

Summer Crops Need Planting Rains

Lexie Donald, Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence, 14th November 2007.

Cropping regions in southern Queensland and northern NSW have an average to below average crop yield expectation for the 2006/07 summer growing season.

This is based on the soil water conditions at the end of October and the seasonal rainfall outlook for November to January. In comparison central Queensland shire yields will be closer to their long term average.

The regional sorghum outlook is stronger than for this time last year, when a rapidly falling phase of the SOI indicated dry summer conditions, combined with very low starting soil moisture.

Many areas of Queensland and northern NSW have received some useful relief rain over the past month. This may have increased starting soil moisture compared to the beginning of the last planting season, particularly in fallowed paddocks.

Widespread useful rain is still needed to improve the current crop outlook.

The regional sorghum crop outlook assumes cropping after a winter fallow. It does not take into account effects of poor crop nutrition or damage due to pests, diseases, or weather.

For more information contact Andries Potgieter on (07) 4688 1417.

The 30 day average of the SOI as of the 19th November is plus 5.4. Based on the SOI and historical rainfall records there is a 40 to 60% chance of getting above median rainfall throughout Australia during November to January. Tropical coastal Queensland has a slightly higher 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall.

For those interested daily updates on the SOI are available on (07) 46881439 or at www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au. You can also receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe call (07)4688 1588.

Lexie Donald
Research Scientist
Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence
Telephone 07 4688 1588
Facsimile 07 4688 1490
Email alexis.donald@nrw.qld.gov.au
Mobile 0403 366 444
www.climatechange.qld.gov.au

Department of Natural Resources and Water

203 Tor Street
Toowoomba Qld 4350

PO Box 318
Toowoomba Qld 4350