Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for July to October 2009

The bottom line

June warmer than average. Dave McRae, Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence, 20 July 09.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology monthly climate summary (www.bom.gov.au), maximum temperatures during June were warmer than average across Queensland. Average maximum temperatures recorded throughout the south east of the state were up to 1 degree Celsius warmer than the long term June average while average maximum temperatures recorded through out the rest of Queensland were 1 to 3 degree Celsius above the long term June average.

Given the above average maximum temperatures recorded during June across Queensland, it is noteworthy that the Bureau's seasonal temperature outlook for July to September also indicates a relatively high 60 to 75% chance of recording above median maximum temperatures across the southern two thirds of the state.

The above average maximum temperatures experienced during June throughout Queensland were also recorded through much of the southern hemisphere. According to the US national climatic data centre (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa) southern hemisphere land and ocean temperatures recorded during June 2009 where the warmest for any June on record.

The 30-day average of the SOI has continued to fluctuate and as of the 20th July was a surprising plus 10.2. It will be interesting to monitor whether this is a longer term trend or just a short term fluctuation. You can receive a text message with the latest SOI values sent to your mobile phone. To subscribe to this free service, call me on (07) 4688 1459 or e-mail david.mcrae@climatechange.qld.gov.au

In the mean time there remains a 30 to 40% chance of getting above the long term median rainfall for July through to the end of September across most of Queensland (or depending on how you look at things a 60 to 70% chance of getting below median rainfall).

The exception is for the region to the south east of the Gulf of Carpentaria where there is a 50 to 70% chance of getting above median rainfall for July to September. However median rainfall levels at this time of year in that region are low. For example Normanton has a July to September median rainfall of 1mm, Julia Creek has a July to September median rainfall of 6mm and Richmond has a July to September median rainfall of 8mm. For more information try www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au