Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for October to January 2011

Commentary on rainfall probabilities based on 'phases' of the SOI

Conditions favourable for above-median spring rainfall

Dave McRae, Qld Climate Change Centre of Excellence, 06/10/10.

Based on a Consistently Positive SOI phase at the end of September, rainfall probabilities throughout Queensland for the remainder of spring and early summer are favourable. Historically there has been a 60 to 80% probability of above-median rainfall during October to December, throughout most of Queensland, when there has been a Consistently Positive SOI phase at the end of September. The main exception has been for the far south west and far central west of Queensland were there has been a slightly lower (50 to 60%) probability of above-median rainfall. The last time there was a Consistently Positive SOI phase at the end of September was in 2008. Other years since 1950 that have had the same SOI phase at the end of September include: 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1981, 1988, 1996, 1998 and 2000.